Loyalty Programs in 2026: Redefining Customer Loyalty Through Data & AI-Powered Personalisation

As 2025 comes to a close, everyone here at TRIFFT is still celebrating lots of big wins in what has been an amazing year. From great new clients in exciting industries to successful launches of our new AI-powered tools to the growth of our team and more, it has been a whirlwind of hard work and fantastic rewards. 

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But the calendar tells us that it will soon be time to turn the page and that’s why we’re shifting our focus to 2026 and the trends & topics that will define the loyalty industry. If the pace and scale of the changes that we’ve seen in the last twelve months are an indication of things to come, we definitely have a lot to look forward to.  

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So join us for this look at our predictions about what everyone will be talking about in the world of loyalty programs in 2026. 
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Segments of One 

Loyalty programs have long relied on the idea of segments, groups of customers put together on the basis of a relevant, defining shared characteristic. Segments can be as general and high level as gender, income group, etc. or as granular as mothers with young children who mostly buy online during sales in the winter  — there are no rules on how wide or narrow a segment can be. 

Still, customers in those segments always get basically the same offers, making them both tailored and generic at the same time. 
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The days of doing this are now numbered thanks to segments of one. In this strategy, every single loyalty member is treated as a distinct market of one individual. This is easily done with today’s technical capabilities and opens a new world of outreach opportunities:

• Conventional segments: You send a promotion to everyone who hasn't visited in 30 days or has reached a certain spending level or recently joined a newsletter, etc. Let’s choose something specific and say the promotion is for a coffee brand’s loyalty club members six months after joining. 
• Segments of one: You send a specific customer a notification at 8:15 AM (her usual commute time) for a double-shot oat milk latte (her usual order) because your AI predicts she is at risk of churning, while simultaneously offering another customer—who visits daily—a challenge to try a new pastry to boost his purchase amount.

Segments of one are a shift from demographic approximation (putting many customers together because of a common trait) to behavioural precision (personalised messaging at scale based on collected data). 

Why 2026 is the Year of Segments of One 

Three forces are converging to make 2026 the year of the Segment of One:

1. AI & Predictive Analytics: We no longer look at just purchase and behavioural histories. AI models can now consider context (weather, location, time of day) to predict future intent.
2. The Netflix Effect: Customers are spoiled. If Spotify can curate a "Discover Weekly" playlist just for them, they expect their airline, grocery store, and bank to know them just as well. Generic rewards now feel like spam – because they are. 
3. Zero-Party Data: With third-party cookies dying, brands need customers to voluntarily share data. The only way to get that data is to trade it for hyper-personalised value.
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What It Looks Like in Practice

The "Segment of One" changes the mechanics of loyalty programs in three ways:
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• Rewards

Traditional Loyalty — Static catalog (everyone sees the same range of options, which is designed to appeal to everyone, making it less compelling).

Segment of One — Dynamic marketplace (rewards curating based on individual hobbies & interests).
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• Communication

Traditional Loyalty —  Batch-and-blast emails. Minimal personalisation and it shows. 

Segment of One — Triggered outreach and “reminders” based on real-time location or activity.
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• Tiers

Traditional Loyalty — Gold/Silver/Bronze based on spend. Maybe a little too “traditional”?

Segment of One — Invisible, fluid tiers based on engagement and potential value.
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Segments of One in Action

• Starbucks (Deep Brew): Their AI engine doesn't just track points; it customises the mobile app interface for every user to show their favourite items first and even suggests pairings based on the local weather. Yes, the weather. 
• Sephora: Moves beyond points to offer hyper-personalised beauty recommendations, effectively acting as a digital beauty consultant for every individual member. People looking for an individual look get an individual experience. 
• Grocers: There is already a strong trend away from weekly print circulars to app-based "clipped just for you" coupons that align 100% with individual shopping histories. What better way to get attention than with an offer related to something you already know the customer buys?
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Segments of One Will Be the Only Kind of Segment

The bar has been raised in lots of areas of digital marketing but, as we mentioned with the “Netflix Effect,” personalised communications is at the top of the list. If your loyalty program is still treating customers like part of a demographic instead of an individual with his or her own unique history of purchases and interactions, you aren't building loyalty—you're just renting their attention until someone else gets to know them better.

Making the shift toward this mentality needs to be at the top of your 2026 to-do list.
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Propensity Modeling & The "Next Best Action" (NBA)

“Last purchase date” used to be the main metric when trying to identify at-risk customers, but it’s being replaced with something much more useful and accurate—”propensity to churn.”

Odds are that 2026 will mark the official end of "one-size-fits-all" loyalty programs. The days of blasting the same "Double Points Weekend" email to your entire database will look as outdated as a loyalty card full of smudged stamps. 

That’s because the future of loyalty isn't about more rewards—it's about smarter interactions. The two engines driving this revolution are Propensity Modeling and the Next Best Action (NBA) framework. Together, they are transforming and upgrading loyalty outreach into a predictive, profit-generating machine.

Here is why these two technologies will be the defining trends of 2026.
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Propensity Modeling: The "Radar" of Future Loyalty

In 2026, brands won't have to wait for customers to act because they will anticipate the move before it happens. Propensity modeling uses historical data and machine learning to calculate the precise likelihood (propensity) of a customer taking any of a range of specific actions.
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These predictions will operate on dynamic, real-time scores:

• Churn Propensity: "Customer A is 85% likely to leave in the next 30 days."
• Purchase Propensity: "Customer B is 90% likely to buy running shoes if shown a 10% discount."
• Redemption Propensity: "Customer C has a stockpile of points but is only 5% likely to use them without a push."
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The 2026 Difference: Until now, this data was reviewed periodically and the review itself took time. In 2026, these scores will update in real-time, allowing brands to create personalised offers and treat each customer as a segment of one (wait, that sounds familiar…). 

This means having the ability to act quickly to both take advantage of small windows of opportunity and reactivate certain customers before it’s too late. While “propensity” is never a guarantee of anything, it gives the best possible chance to take proactive and preventative measures that keep customer conversations going.
 

"Next Best Action" (NBA): Automating Your Next Step

If propensity modeling is the radar, NBA is the pilot. It takes the probability score for certain outcomes and selects the best move to make for that specific individual right now.

The NBA engine moves loyalty beyond "If This, Then That" rules into complex decision-making. It weighs business value against customer value to answer a crucial question—What is the most profitable way to make this customer happy right now?

Look at these common scenarios and compare the conventional way of responding with what is possible with Propensity and Next Best Action insights:
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• The “At Risk Customer”

The Conventional Way — The customer stops visiting. 60 days later, an automated "We Miss You" email sends a generic 20% off coupon. Doesn’t this already seem like an ancient way of dealing with the problem?

Propensity + NBA —  The model detects a drop in app usage frequency (Churn Propensity spikes) and triggers a push notification before they leave, offering a non-monetary reward (e.g., "Free Lounge Access" or "Early Access to Sale") to re-engage them without devaluing the brand.

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• The “Big Spender”

The Conventional Way — A customer buys a TV and later receives the same "10% off accessories" email as everyone else.

Propensity + NBA — The model sees they bought a TV but have a low propensity to buy cables (they likely already have them) and skips the discount. Instead, it sends a "How-to guide" on calibrating the TV picture settings to build emotional loyalty and trust.
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Why This Wins in 2026: Emotional vs. Transactional Loyalty

The biggest trend for 2026 is the shift toward emotional loyalty. It’s the only kind of customer loyalty that lasts in today’s marketplace. 

While transactional loyalty may be easier to achieve, it is fleeting and temporary. Customers with transactional loyalty are gone the moment a better offer comes along or a brand drifts off their radar. 

Propensity modeling and NBA allow a brand to prove it "knows" the customer and act accordingly. When, for example, an airline creates a Next Best Action that automatically rebooks a tight connection before the customer lands, that earns more loyalty than any amount of free miles ever could. Propensity modeling can stop a problem before it starts and get better results than a too-late “We miss you!” email ever could. 

These are the kinds of experiences that tie customers to a brand based on something more than transactional benefits. 
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Zero-Party Data & The Privacy Value Exchange

The internet’s unspoken rule has long been "We track you, and you get to use our site for free." In 2026, this rule will be packed up and sent to some museum, where it belongs. 

The most significant shift in loyalty programs won't be about points or tiers—it will be about consent. As third-party cookies vanish due to reforms introduced by online giants and privacy regulations tighten globally, brands are losing their ability to follow the footsteps left behind by visitors to their sites. 

The solution? Zero-Party Data—and a transparent new implied contract called the Privacy Value Exchange. In 2026, the brands that win won't be the ones with the most data, they will be the ones with the most permission and loyalty programs are the perfect platform for this exchange, turning privacy from a legal hurdle into a relationship builder.
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What is Zero-Party Data?

Unlike First-Party Data (which you passively infer from clicks and purchases), Zero-Party Data is information a customer intentionally and proactively shares with you. It is high-quality, high-intent data that no algorithm can guess.

The "Privacy Value Exchange"

In 2026, customer data will be treated as a currency. Customers are increasingly aware of their data's value and will no longer give it away for free. The bad news is that they will expect a direct "payment" in the form of better experiences, but the good news is that it’s a trade they’re willing to make—if you can show that it’s worth it. 

Think of the Privacy Value Exchange as a kind of understanding between a customer and a brand, a transparent deal where the customer agrees to share their personal data (intentions, preferences, contact info) in direct exchange for a tangible benefit (better service, discounts, exclusivity, or convenience).

This flips the old dynamic of third-party cookies and treats data as a currency that the customer owns and chooses to spend.
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Here is how this exchange works:
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The "Give" (What the Customer Provides)

Instead of passive tracking, the customer proactively provides Zero-Party Data:

• Preferences: "I wear size Medium and hate wool."
• Intent: "I am looking for a wedding guest dress."
• Context: "I am shopping for my child, not myself."
• Identity: Email, phone number, and birthday.
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The "Get" (How the Brand “Pays” in Return)

To earn that data, the brand must offer something of equal or greater value:

• Financial Value: "Tell us your birthday, and we’ll give you 20% off during your birth month."
• Convenience Value: "Tell us your skin type, and we will filter out every product that will cause a breakout, saving you scrolling time."
• Experience Value: "Tell us your favorite artists, and we will build a 'Daily Mix' playlist just for you" (The Spotify Model).
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Why the Privacy Value Exchange is Better for Everyone

Leaving third-party cookies behind and instead embracing this new model represents a shift from passive surveillance (tracking clicks) to active collaboration (asking for preferences). This means informed consent from customers and direct participation in crafting their content experiences.

Look at the advantages this new reality offers for better customer conversations:
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Third Party Cookies (Surveillance)

• Data Source: Inferred from clicks & cookies.
• Accuracy: Low (maybe I bought that gift for a friend?).
• Customer Feeling: "This is creepy."
• Loyalty Role: Earn points for spending money.

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Privacy Value Exchange (Consent) 

• Data Source: "Zero-Party Data" (voluntarily given).
• Accuracy: 100% (I told you I'm shopping for a friend).
• Customer Feeling: "This is helpful."
• Loyalty Role: Earn status/perks for sharing data.
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As third-party cookies vanish completely, loyalty programs become the primary vehicle for data collection. But customers in 2026 are savvy and they know their data has value. Give it to them. 
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Time to Level Up: Gamification in 2026

It’s simply a fact that many consumers have reached loyalty fatigue. Their phones are full of apps they used once and forgot about. They’ve lost count of the clubs they’ve joined just to get a discount at checkout and then forgot about those too. They’re no longer intrigued by the prospect of reaching anyone’s “Gold Tier,” no matter what the rewards might be. Many are numb to constant offers to join this or earn points for that. But this is only a problem for brands that are stuck in the old ways of loyalty—for everyone else, it’s a massive opportunity. 
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That’s because in 2026, the brands that cut through the noise won't just offer rewards. They will offer entertainment.
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Gamification is at the core of modern loyalty and will reach new heights in the coming year as part of the larger shift from transactional loyalty ("Buy this, get points") to emotional loyalty ("Play this, feel good").

Here are some ways that Gamification will further evolve in 2026 and engage loyalty program members in new ways. 
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The Death of "Points for Purchase"

In 2026, rewarding customers only for spending money is the bare minimum. The new standard is rewarding engagement.

Brands will use gamification to incentivise behaviours that don't immediately generate revenue but build long-term value:

• "The Review Quest": Earn a "Critic" badge and 50 points for leaving a detailed review.
• "App Applause": Get rewards for logging into a brand app a certain number of times. 
• "The Social Share": Unlock a mystery reward by sharing your purchase on social media.
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Collaborative "Squad" Loyalty

Loyalty has traditionally been a solo sport. In 2026, it becomes multiplayer.

Brands will introduce Squad Goals, where friends pool their points or efforts to unlock shared rewards.

• Example: "You and 3 friends need to visit the gym 10 times total this month. If you hit the goal, everyone gets 20% off."
• Why it wins: It leverages peer pressure and social proof. You aren't just letting down a brand if you churn—you're letting down your friends.
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Tech-Driven Transformation

The evolution of gamification in loyalty programs is being driven by the rise of new technical possibilities. The bar is high and rising — “Spin to Win” can still be effective, but who knows for how much longer. 

Generative AI and Spatial Computing are transforming gamification from a static layer on top of your app into a dynamic engine that drives it. In 2026, we will see more movement away from obvious gamification (where you know you are playing a game) to gamification woven into the experience (where interactions with the brand feel like an adventure).

To win in 2026, you don't just need a points engine. You need a Game Engine.

Loyalty in 2026 — More Effective, Less Visible 

The best loyalty programs in 2026 will be the ones customers hardly notice.

The goal now is not to feel like a “program” at all, and instead make loyalty outreach a seamless extension of interactions with a brand. Loyalty will mean the right offer before you search for it, respecting privacy without being asked, making the act of shopping feel a little more like play and much more.

In 2026, technology will allow brands to treat every customer with the care and attention needed to make them feel like an entire experience has been crafted just for them—because it has. 

Learn more about how TRIFFT can help you achieve your goals in 2026 and beyond with a personal introduction everything an effective loyalty program can do by scheduling a demo today. 

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